What can be said about 2020 that hasn’t already been said? We know it’s been a tough year and we’ve heard just as many commiserate over it while others are looking for the silver lining. What I think we can all agree on is no one could have predicted this. But despite how difficult it is to guess the future, I am still going to make my 2021 craft beer predictions.
This continues to be a fun way I can prove to myself how little I know about the future and the hobby that I love so much. The world and this industry keep changing and I like to guess which turn it will make. In general, I keep learning that the more things appear to change, the more they stay the same.
Review Of Last Year’s Craft Beer Predictions
Before I jump into 2021, let’s see how accurate my 2020 predictions were.
Low Cal IPAs: I predicted that there would be a strong low cal / low ABV trend. And while many breweries made these beers, I think COVID prevented them from taking off as much as they could. While quarantined, I don’t think most were looking for lower ABV options.
Hard Seltzer: My thought was more small to midsized breweries would make these but focus on taproom room only sales. With so many taprooms closed, it is hard to say for certain if this was accurate. But we did see more breweries make seltzers.
Consolidation: While it didn’t happen much in 2020, I still do believe that we will see more buying / merging of craft breweries. Those that have built a successful model will buy those that haven’t. And this won’t always be with large breweries, we will see small breweries buy other small breweries.
Increase In Closings: In addition to consolidation, I thought 2020 would be the year we started seeing a substantial number of breweries close. This isn’t the “bubble” that some my reference but rather a more natural market adjustment due to how quickly the industry grew in prior years. 2020 has been a weird year so we shall see how many fall victim to COVID.
2021 Craft Beer Predictions
Beer Styles
Every years brings a shift in what beer styles are most popular. The last huge change was the New England / Hazy IPA and the hard seltzer. For 2021, I don’t think we will have a huge change but there are a few styles I think will get some additional attention. Here are my 2021 craft beer predictions for beer styles.
Low Cal tries again: It was my prediction last year and I think breweries try again as (hopefully) COVID-19 becomes a thing of the past. This is more of an active lifestyle beer category so if people are able to get outside then this style has a better chance of success.
Seltzers: Nope, seltzers aren’t going away. In fact, I’d imagine the vast majority of craft breweries haven’t really focused on them yet. More will make them in 2021. However, many will not see the success they had hoped to find with them and reduce or stop production.
Fruited Hazy IPA: Remember when many thought Hazy IPAs would be a short-lived trend? They are obviously here to stay and I see 2021 as the year when we see a push towards adding more fruit flavors to them to compliment the fruity hop characteristic.
More experimental hops: Craft beer fans love a new hop varietal just as much as we love seeing Citra in an IPA. It takes years to breed new types of hops and even more time before there is enough volume to make it readily available. The new hops intrigue craft beer fans and help sell more IPA.
English Mild: While we continually hear that Pilsner and other lagers will see a huge surge in popularity, I think there are other styles that make more sense. The English Mild is one of them. It is an easy drinking beer with low ABV and great flavor. And since it is an ale, breweries like that it doesn’t take as much time as lagers.
Packaging
It’s crazy how the pandemic has changed so much, so quickly. Packaged beer has always been important to craft beer – especially in the beginning. But the creation / popularity of taprooms changed that and most small breweries put a huge focus on driving consumers to their brewery. With taprooms closed during some portion of the pandemic, every brewery needed a strategy to get their beer into the hands / mouths of consumers.
Those that weren’t canning / bottling were at a severe disadvantage during this time. Going forward, every brewery will have a stronger packaged beer plan. This means more packaged beer options for everyone to choose from.
Taprooms
As I write this, there are updates daily about COVID-19 vaccines. Hopefully, 2021 will provide a vaccine and normalcy will slowly resume. With that will be the return to taprooms. On-site sales are very important to breweries. So, I believe they will be more creative and aggressive at marketing why you should come back to their taproom. How quickly we return to taprooms could determine how many breweries survive when all of this ends.
Delivery
We can’t ignore the good things that have come from 2020. Craft beer delivery is definitely one of those silver linings. While many breweries closed or drastically cut production, others got aggressive with home delivery of their beer. Some of the delivery was literally delivered by the brewery, others shipped their beer well outside their normal reach.
I don’t know all the legalities of beer delivery, but I do know that it provided a way for some breweries to still move their beer during COVID-19. While some won’t be able to handle the logistics going forward, I don’t think this will go away completely. Many invested in web stores and other solutions to make delivery possible so they will continue delivering or shipping their beer as long as they are able to and there is demand.
2021 Craft Beer Predictions Final Thoughts
2020, what a year! I think we are all hoping for a less eventful 2021. A little bit of peace and recovery is what we want but only time will tell what we get. With everything considered, I’d have to think many breweries are going to make future decisions with the notion that another event could alter their business practices.
This could greatly delay some breweries from expanding quickly. But hopefully it means they are building more stable, futureproof businesses that can withstand a few bumps in the road.
What do you think will happen? Drop a comment below and let’s see if you can accurately predict the future of craft beer!
